From the perspective of market liquidity, the mark

2022-09-19
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From the perspective of market liquidity, the situation of waste yellow paperboard after the holiday

release date: Source: zhuochuang paper (Fang Juntao) number of Views: 1448 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: in recent communication with the market, the market has paid more attention to domestic liquidity, especially whether the inflection point of domestic liquidity is coming and the impact on domestic waste yellow paperboard, which has become a hot topic for discussion

in recent communication with the market, The market pays more attention to domestic liquidity, especially whether the inflection point of domestic liquidity is coming, and the impact on domestic waste yellow paperboard has become a hot topic of discussion. Zhuochuang information has made a correlation analysis between the domestic yellow paperboard price and Shibor's 3-month interest rate since 2020, and the correlation coefficient has reached as much as 70%. The trend of the two is still highly correlated. Judging from the trend of both in the past five years, Shibor's 3-month interest rate can also be regarded as a leading indicator of waste yellow paperboard. Shibor's 3-month trend inflection point is generally months ahead of the inflection point of waste yellow paperboard price trend

shibor interest rate reflects inter-bank capital lending. Higher interest rates mean an increase in the demand for bank funds. On the one hand, the economy has entered a rising cycle, and the amount of bank credit has increased, increasing the demand for funds; On the other hand, the monetary policy of the central bank is tightening and liquidity is tightening. Similarly, the interest rate is falling, and the demand for funds is weakening. In this case, 1. The gap is relatively large and enters the downward cycle, or the central bank is releasing liquidity and has sufficient funds

first of all, make a simple comb of the three-month interest rate of Shibor and the trend of national waste yellow paperboard from 2016 to now. From 2016 to 2017, Shibor's 3-month interest rate and domestic waste yellow paperboard showed an overall upward pattern. During this period, with the implementation of supply side reform in China and the global economic recovery, the Chinese economy ended the downward cycle since 2012 and entered the upward period again. Under the pull of tight supply, increased exports and equipment investment cycle, the demand for funds has increased, and commodity prices have also continued to rise. The price of waste yellow paperboard also rose rapidly driven by reduced supply and improved demand. However, in 2017, due to concerns about overheating economy and high leverage in the financial industry, the central bank gradually started deleveraging operations. Banks took the initiative to slow down credit, the demand for funds weakened, the rise of Shibor interest rate slowed down, and began to enter the downward channel in 2018. In, the trade dispute between China and the United States increased the concerns of the market about the economic slowdown, such as the impact, and the funds were further reduced. In 2020, due to the impact of public health events, in order to prevent the rapid decline of the economy, China released a large amount of liquidity again, and the economy also rebounded rapidly with the weakening of the impact of public health events

from the trend of both, Shibor interest rate is obviously ahead of the yellow board. The main reason is that the central bank's policy adjustment is first fed back to the capital side, but economic development has a certain inertia. The tightening and relaxation of the capital side requires a process of transmission to the economy

for the future liquidity market, it can be seen that the trend of Shibor interest rate largely reflects the monetary policy and its impact on the economy, and the monetary policy and economic trend are relatively interconnected as a closed-loop control system. What will happen to the monetary policy in 2021? In December 2020, the central economic work stressed that the policy "does not turn sharply". The fourth quarter monetary policy implementation report of the people's Bank of China clearly stated that stability should take the lead, and monetary policy should be flexible, accurate, reasonable and appropriate

from the economic perspective, after the domestic public health events have been well controlled, the economy has recovered rapidly with the support of domestic large-scale market rescue measures. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the economy has recovered to the level before the public health events, and the economy is on the upward track at present. However, after the release of a large amount of liquidity, the upward pressure of inflation began to increase, the financial sector was leveraged, the real estate price rose rapidly, and the phenomenon of funds "from real to virtual" was still relatively obvious

it is expected that the monetary policy in 2021 may be somewhat close to that in 2017. On the one hand, we should control the general gate of money supply, keep the money supply basically matching the growth rate of social finance scale, maintain the basic stability of macro leverage ratio, and consolidate the good economic situation after the crisis; On the other hand, we should also increase financial deleveraging, prevent the expansion of asset foam and effectively guide funds to "get rid of the virtual and turn to the real" under the background of large-scale global water release. "No sharp turn" in monetary policy does not mean no turn. As the economic recovery continues, monetary policy will gradually return to normalization, and credit expansion will gradually slow down

of course, it remains to be seen whether Shibor interest rates will decline at an inflection point. However, the positive trend of the economy continues, and the demand for funds is still large. The main tone of the prudent monetary policy will not make liquidity tighten rapidly, thereby suppressing the demand for funds

therefore, from the perspective of capital, after the crisis, the marginal expansion of liquidity slowed down, but the positive trend of the economy continued, and the cross impact of the two may be limited in 2021. It is expected that in 2021, the domestic yellow paperboard price will rise as a whole, but the market caused by liquidity will weaken

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